Burnley’s most valuable players - who comes out on top?

Dwight McNeil is Burnley’s most valuable player, according to the biannual ranking of the estimated price tags for big-5 league players.

Monday, 14th June 2021, 8:00 am
Dwight McNeil
Dwight McNeil

According to the CIES Football Observatory algorithm, the Clarets winger is worth between €40-50m.

Since 2010, the CIES Football Observatory has been at the forefront of pioneering work in developing a scientific method to estimate the transfer values of footballers, based on sums previously paid for players with similar characteristics.

The variables included in the statistical model of the CIES Football Observatory for estimating the transfer values for professional football players can be divided into three groups: variables relative to clubs - where players were playing before their transfer; those relative to players - length of contract, age, international status, minutes, goals, assists etc; as well as a contextual variable: the season during which the transfer took place.

And while some figures may appear too little, or too high, the statistical model was built from a sample of 1,790 paid transfers between July 2012 and January 2020, and the correlation between the sums paid and estimated is greater than 80% - so fairly accurate ultimately.

Outside of McNeil, Burnley’s main assets are England goalkeeper Nick Pope, midfielder Josh Brownhill and top scorer Chris Wood, all valued at between €10-15m.

Bailey Peacock-Farrell, Charlie Taylor and Ashley Westwood are next up, at between €7-10m, with James Tarkowski - who has a year remaining on his contract, having indicated is unlikely to sign a new one - valued at between €4-7m, the same as strikers Jay Rodriguez and Matej Vydra, who also have a year left on their deals.

Ben Mee and Ashley Barnes come in at €2-4m, again with the pair out of contract next summer, although the club have an option of further year on Barnes.

Midfielder Jack Cork is valued at €1-2m, with Will Norris and Dale Stephens at less than €1m.

There are English talents are at the top of the rankings, with Manchester City’s Phil Foden valued at €190 million, followed by two Manchester United’s players in Mason Greenwood (€178m) and Marcus Rashford (€159m).

Erling Haaland has the top estimated transfer value for players outside of the Premier League. P

With respect to fees paid in the past, an investment of €155m is expected to be necessary to sign the Norwegian striker.

With only one year of contract remaining, Kylian Mbappé (€118m) is only 12th.

Only three of the 20 big-5 league footballers with an estimated transfer value of more than €100m are over 25 years of age: Bruno Fernandes, Timo Werner and Bernardo Silva.

Ederson Moraes (€62m) has the greatest estimated value for goalkeepers.

His teammate at Manchester City Ruben Días (€114m) tops the table for centre backs.

Alphonso Davies (€131m) from Bayern Munich is at the top for full backs, and no other defensive midfielder has an estimated value as high as Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong (€138m).

Transfer value intervals for all big-5 league footballers are available on the CIES Football Observatory website.